How It Works
The model behind each prediction
How Predictions Are Made
Every prediction comes from baseline-poisson-v1, a Poisson goal-expectancy model. Each team's attack and defence strength is measured relative to the league average from real finished fixtures, split by home/away venue, then adjusted for recent form (the last 6 games, weighted toward the most recent). Teams with a short history are pulled toward the league average rather than trusted on a handful of games — see "Data Requirements" below.
Markets We Predict
Eleven markets, all derived from the same expected-goals model: Match Result; Over and Under 1.5 and 2.5 Goals; Both Teams to Score; and Over/Under 0.5 and 1.5 First Half Goals. Over and Under are independent predictions on each side of the same threshold, not a single "which side is more likely" pick — each carries its own real probability from the same Poisson distribution, and both always sum to 100%. We do not predict Cards, Corners, or individual player markets — the engine has no real statistical basis for them yet, and we would rather show fewer markets than a fabricated one.
Confidence Scores
High (80–100%): Strong statistical edge — our model sees a clear lean here. Medium (55–79%): Likely outcome with real uncertainty still in play. Low (under 55%): Coinflip territory — included for completeness only.
Data Requirements
A team needs at least 3 prior games at that venue (home or away) before we'll predict a fixture involving them at all — below that, we show nothing rather than guess. Below 10 games, we label the prediction "Limited data" since the model still leans heavily on the league average; at 10 or more, it's "Strong data".
Model Performance
We track how the model has actually performed — both backtested against historical fixtures and live against real, settled predictions — including where it's overconfident or underconfident by confidence band. See the Performance page for the real numbers, not a marketing claim.
Important Disclaimer
Footy Acca is for entertainment and research only. These are statistical predictions — not guarantees, and not proof of outperforming bookmaker odds. 18+ only. Always gamble responsibly. Never bet money you cannot afford to lose. If gambling is causing you harm, visit gambleaware.org.
Responsible Use
Mr Footy Acca is a football prediction and intelligence product — it does not accept bets, hold funds, or place wagers on your behalf.
- Every prediction here is probabilistic, not a certainty — a HIGH confidence band means more evidence supports it, never a guarantee.
- Each additional leg in an Acca materially reduces the chance the full Acca wins — every leg has to win, and the more of them there are, the less likely that is.
- Historical performance, on this site or anywhere else, does not guarantee future outcomes.
- Gambling involves real financial risk. If you choose to use these predictions when betting elsewhere, only stake what you can genuinely afford to lose — never money needed for essential living costs.
- Set a personal limit before you start, and stick to it. Never chase losses by staking more to try to win back what's gone.
- You must be 18 or older (or the legal age in your jurisdiction, if higher) to use this service.
Never described here as a "banker," "guaranteed," or equivalent — no prediction on this site ever is.
If gambling is affecting you or someone you know, free, confidential support is available from GambleAware (opens in a new tab).