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Sassuolo
Lazio
Serie ALeague
SassuoloVSUpcoming
Lazio27 Oct 2026, 17:30Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:42
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
64%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 17 Oct 2026, 18:14
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
SAS
0.93
LAZ
1.25
Recent form adjustment
SAS0.98×
LAZ1.04×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 0.93
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.25
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.43/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.01/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.16/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.35/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.54 / 1.31 (61 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x0.98
- Away recent form adjustment
- x1.04
- Sample size
- 22 home games, 41 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff27 Oct 2026, 17:30
- Prediction generated17 Oct 2026, 18:14
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:42