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Santa Clara
Benfica
Liga PortugalLeague
Santa ClaraVSUpcoming
Benfica26 Oct 2026, 18:45Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:42
AI recommendation
Under 2.5
64%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 17 Oct 2026, 18:14
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
CDSC
0.77
SLB
1.37
Recent form adjustment
CDSC1.03×
SLB1.04×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 0.77
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.37
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.13/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 0.88/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 2.00/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 0.93/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.32 / 1.43 (70 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x1.03
- Away recent form adjustment
- x1.04
- Sample size
- 38 home games, 39 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy42%
Settled predictions1571
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff26 Oct 2026, 18:45
- Prediction generated17 Oct 2026, 18:14
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:42