Back to Matches
Sevilla
Osasuna
La LigaLeague
SevillaVSUpcoming
Osasuna26 Oct 2026, 20:00Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:42
AI recommendation
Under 2.5
70%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 17 Oct 2026, 18:14
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
SEV
1.13
OSA
0.80
Recent form adjustment
SEV0.99×
OSA0.94×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.13
- Away expected goals (model)
- 0.80
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.16/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.67/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 0.86/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.31/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.71 / 1.31 (79 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x0.99
- Away recent form adjustment
- x0.94
- Sample size
- 42 home games, 42 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy42%
Settled predictions1571
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff26 Oct 2026, 20:00
- Prediction generated17 Oct 2026, 18:14
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:42