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Aris
Atromitos
Super LeagueLeague
ArisVSUpcoming
Atromitos25 Oct 2026, 17:30Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:45
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
64%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 17 Oct 2026, 18:14
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
ARI
1.20
ATRO
0.98
Recent form adjustment
ARI0.98×
ATRO0.98×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.20
- Away expected goals (model)
- 0.98
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.53/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.24/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.33/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 0.75/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.55 / 1.00 (43 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x0.98
- Away recent form adjustment
- x0.98
- Sample size
- 19 home games, 19 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff25 Oct 2026, 17:30
- Prediction generated17 Oct 2026, 18:14
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:45