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Sparta Praha
Slovácko
Chance LigaLeague
Sparta PrahaVSUpcoming
Slovácko25 Oct 2026, 14:00Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:45
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
78%
MEDIUM confidenceLimited databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 17 Oct 2026, 18:14
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
SPA
1.95
SLO
0.94
Recent form adjustment
SPA1.04×
SLO1.00×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.95
- Away expected goals (model)
- 0.94
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.44/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.81/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 0.98/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.06/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.40 / 1.11 (53 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x1.04
- Away recent form adjustment
- x1.00
- Sample size
- 4 home games, 21 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff25 Oct 2026, 14:00
- Prediction generated17 Oct 2026, 18:14
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:45