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Horsens
Sønderjyske Fodbold
SuperligaLeague
HorsensVSUpcoming
Sønderjyske Fodbold25 Oct 2026, 15:00Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:43
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
79%
MEDIUM confidenceLimited databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 17 Oct 2026, 18:13
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
ACH
1.72
SON
1.24
Recent form adjustment
ACH1.00×
SON0.97×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.72
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.24
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.38/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.94/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.19/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.49/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.55 / 1.38 (55 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x1.00
- Away recent form adjustment
- x0.97
- Sample size
- 5 home games, 32 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff25 Oct 2026, 15:00
- Prediction generated17 Oct 2026, 18:13
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:43