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Motherwell
Hearts
PremiershipLeague
MotherwellVSUpcoming
Hearts25 Oct 2026, 14:00Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:43
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
78%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 17 Oct 2026, 18:13
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
MOT
1.36
HEA
1.51
Recent form adjustment
MOT0.96×
HEA1.05×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.36
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.51
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.34/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.42/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.26/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.50/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.34 / 1.31 (52 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x0.96
- Away recent form adjustment
- x1.05
- Sample size
- 38 home games, 40 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff25 Oct 2026, 14:00
- Prediction generated17 Oct 2026, 18:13
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:43