Back to Matches
LASK
Salzburg
Admiral BundesligaLeague
LASKVSUpcoming
Salzburg25 Oct 2026, 16:00Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:43
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
73%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 17 Oct 2026, 18:13
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
ASK
1.31
RBS
1.28
Recent form adjustment
ASK1.03×
RBS1.05×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.31
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.28
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.81/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.24/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.40/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.10/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.75 / 1.27 (50 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x1.03
- Away recent form adjustment
- x1.05
- Sample size
- 38 home games, 36 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff25 Oct 2026, 16:00
- Prediction generated17 Oct 2026, 18:13
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:43