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Sturm Graz
Ried
Admiral BundesligaLeague
Sturm GrazVSUpcoming
Ried25 Oct 2026, 13:30Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:43
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
76%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 17 Oct 2026, 14:50
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
STU
1.76
SVR
1.01
Recent form adjustment
STU0.99×
SVR1.02×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.76
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.01
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.82/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.73/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.12/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.08/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.78 / 1.22 (49 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x0.99
- Away recent form adjustment
- x1.02
- Sample size
- 35 home games, 21 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff25 Oct 2026, 13:30
- Prediction generated17 Oct 2026, 14:50
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:43