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Udinese
AC Milan
Serie ALeague
UdineseVSUpcoming
AC Milan25 Oct 2026, 19:45Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:42
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
67%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 17 Oct 2026, 14:50
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
UDI
0.78
MIL
1.50
Recent form adjustment
UDI0.97×
MIL1.03×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 0.78
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.50
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.08/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.14/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.52/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.27/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.54 / 1.33 (60 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x0.97
- Away recent form adjustment
- x1.03
- Sample size
- 41 home games, 42 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff25 Oct 2026, 19:45
- Prediction generated17 Oct 2026, 14:50
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:42