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Union Saint-Gilloise
Cercle Brugge
Pro LeagueLeague
Union Saint-GilloiseVSUpcoming
Cercle Brugge25 Oct 2026, 18:15Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:42
AI recommendation
Match Result
USG Win
75%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 17 Oct 2026, 14:50
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
USG
2.11
CBR
0.51
Recent form adjustment
USG1.06×
CBR0.97×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 2.11
- Away expected goals (model)
- 0.51
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 2.05/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.63/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.23/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 0.56/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.68 / 1.30 (72 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x1.06
- Away recent form adjustment
- x0.97
- Sample size
- 44 home games, 40 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy49%
Settled predictions1611
Backtested performance, this market
Accuracy50%
Sample size678
CompetitionsLa Liga
Evaluation period15 Aug 2024, 18:00 – 24 May 2026, 20:00
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff25 Oct 2026, 18:15
- Prediction generated17 Oct 2026, 14:50
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:42