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Nacional
Sporting Braga
Liga PortugalLeague
NacionalVSUpcoming
Sporting Braga25 Oct 2026, 18:00Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:42
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
72%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 17 Oct 2026, 14:50
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
CDN
0.90
SCB
1.61
Recent form adjustment
CDN0.94×
SCB0.99×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 0.90
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.61
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.34/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 0.94/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.49/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.56/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.32 / 1.43 (70 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x0.94
- Away recent form adjustment
- x0.99
- Sample size
- 38 home games, 38 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff25 Oct 2026, 18:00
- Prediction generated17 Oct 2026, 14:50
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:42