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Auxerre
Le Mans
Ligue 1League
AuxerreVSUpcoming
Le Mans25 Oct 2026, 16:15Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:42
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
71%
MEDIUM confidenceLimited databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 17 Oct 2026, 14:49
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
AUX
1.45
MAN
1.04
Recent form adjustment
AUX0.97×
MAN0.96×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.45
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.04
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.29/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.88/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.29/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.05/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.62 / 1.26 (55 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x0.97
- Away recent form adjustment
- x0.96
- Sample size
- 37 home games, 3 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff25 Oct 2026, 16:15
- Prediction generated17 Oct 2026, 14:49
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:42