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Rennes
Strasbourg
Ligue 1League
RennesVSUpcoming
Strasbourg25 Oct 2026, 16:15Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:42
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
80%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 17 Oct 2026, 14:49
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
REN
1.72
STR
1.24
Recent form adjustment
REN1.01×
STR1.00×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.72
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.24
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.69/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.63/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.52/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.03/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.62 / 1.26 (55 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x1.01
- Away recent form adjustment
- x1.00
- Sample size
- 37 home games, 38 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff25 Oct 2026, 16:15
- Prediction generated17 Oct 2026, 14:49
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:42