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Estoril
Moreirense
Liga PortugalLeague
EstorilVSUpcoming
Moreirense25 Oct 2026, 15:30Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:42
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
76%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 17 Oct 2026, 14:49
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
EPF
1.70
MFC
1.08
Recent form adjustment
EPF0.97×
MFC0.98×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.70
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.08
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.41/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.64/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.10/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.42/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.32 / 1.43 (70 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x0.97
- Away recent form adjustment
- x0.98
- Sample size
- 38 home games, 38 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff25 Oct 2026, 15:30
- Prediction generated17 Oct 2026, 14:49
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:42