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Atalanta
Frosinone
Serie ALeague
AtalantaVSUpcoming
Frosinone25 Oct 2026, 14:00Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:42
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
73%
MEDIUM confidenceLimited databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 17 Oct 2026, 14:49
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
ATA
1.52
FRO
1.07
Recent form adjustment
ATA1.00×
FRO1.01×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.52
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.07
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.61/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.46/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.33/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.06/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.54 / 1.33 (60 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x1.00
- Away recent form adjustment
- x1.01
- Sample size
- 42 home games, 3 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff25 Oct 2026, 14:00
- Prediction generated17 Oct 2026, 14:49
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:42