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Genoa
Venezia
Serie ALeague
GenoaVSUpcoming
Venezia25 Oct 2026, 14:00Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:42
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
66%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 17 Oct 2026, 14:49
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
GEN
1.37
VEN
0.91
Recent form adjustment
GEN0.98×
VEN0.94×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.37
- Away expected goals (model)
- 0.91
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.16/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.84/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 0.91/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.40/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.54 / 1.33 (60 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x0.98
- Away recent form adjustment
- x0.94
- Sample size
- 42 home games, 22 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff25 Oct 2026, 14:00
- Prediction generated17 Oct 2026, 14:49
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:42