Back to Matches
Athletic Club
Getafe
La LigaLeague
Athletic ClubVSUpcoming
Getafe25 Oct 2026, 13:00Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:42
AI recommendation
Under 2.5
77%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 16 Oct 2026, 22:09
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
ATH
1.05
GET
0.59
Recent form adjustment
ATH1.02×
GET0.97×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.05
- Away expected goals (model)
- 0.59
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.44/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.25/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 0.84/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 0.95/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.75 / 1.33 (77 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x1.02
- Away recent form adjustment
- x0.97
- Sample size
- 42 home games, 42 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy42%
Settled predictions1571
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff25 Oct 2026, 13:00
- Prediction generated16 Oct 2026, 22:09
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:42