Back to Matches
AZ
FC Twente '65
EredivisieLeague
AZVSUpcoming
FC Twente '6525 Oct 2026, 19:00Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:40
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
75%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 16 Oct 2026, 22:09
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
AZ
1.70
Twente
0.99
Recent form adjustment
AZ1.01×
Twente1.03×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.70
- Away expected goals (model)
- 0.99
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 2.06/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.41/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.66/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.11/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.71 / 1.90 (73 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x1.01
- Away recent form adjustment
- x1.03
- Sample size
- 38 home games, 38 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff25 Oct 2026, 19:00
- Prediction generated16 Oct 2026, 22:09
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:40