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Sparta Rotterdam
AFC Ajax
EredivisieLeague
Sparta RotterdamVSUpcoming
AFC Ajax25 Oct 2026, 15:45Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:40
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
80%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 16 Oct 2026, 22:09
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
Sparta
1.22
Ajax
1.75
Recent form adjustment
Sparta0.95×
Ajax1.04×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.22
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.75
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.36/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.61/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 2.01/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.59/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.71 / 1.90 (73 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x0.95
- Away recent form adjustment
- x1.04
- Sample size
- 38 home games, 37 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff25 Oct 2026, 15:45
- Prediction generated16 Oct 2026, 22:09
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:40