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Fortuna Sittard
SBV Excelsior
EredivisieLeague
Fortuna SittardVSUpcoming
SBV Excelsior25 Oct 2026, 11:15Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:40
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
75%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 16 Oct 2026, 22:09
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
Sittard
1.45
Excelsior
1.22
Recent form adjustment
Sittard0.99×
Excelsior0.94×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.45
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.22
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.34/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.88/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.70/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.45/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.71 / 1.90 (73 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x0.99
- Away recent form adjustment
- x0.94
- Sample size
- 38 home games, 40 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff25 Oct 2026, 11:15
- Prediction generated16 Oct 2026, 22:09
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:40