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Sunderland AFC
Leeds United FC
Premier LeagueLeague
Sunderland AFCVSUpcoming
Leeds United FC25 Oct 2026, 16:30Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:40
AI recommendation
Under 2.5
76%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 16 Oct 2026, 22:09
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
Sunderland
0.71
Leeds United
0.97
Recent form adjustment
Sunderland0.96×
Leeds United1.01×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 0.71
- Away expected goals (model)
- 0.97
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.34/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 0.87/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.43/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 0.86/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.56 / 1.29 (58 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x0.96
- Away recent form adjustment
- x1.01
- Sample size
- 50 home games, 49 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy42%
Settled predictions1571
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff25 Oct 2026, 16:30
- Prediction generated16 Oct 2026, 22:09
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:40