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Manchester United FC
AFC Bournemouth
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AFC Bournemouth25 Oct 2026, 14:00Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:40
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
83%
HIGH confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 16 Oct 2026, 22:08
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
Man United
1.42
Bournemouth
1.82
Recent form adjustment
Man United0.99×
Bournemouth0.96×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.42
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.82
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.34/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.67/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.75/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.41/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.56 / 1.29 (58 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x0.99
- Away recent form adjustment
- x0.96
- Sample size
- 45 home games, 41 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Timeline
- Kickoff25 Oct 2026, 14:00
- Prediction generated16 Oct 2026, 22:08
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:40