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Crystal Palace FC
Newcastle United FC
Premier LeagueLeague
Crystal Palace FCVSUpcoming
Newcastle United FC25 Oct 2026, 14:00Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:40
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
77%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 16 Oct 2026, 22:08
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
Crystal Palace
1.24
Newcastle
1.54
Recent form adjustment
Crystal Palace1.00×
Newcastle0.99×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.24
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.54
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.34/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.43/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.38/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.45/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.56 / 1.29 (58 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x1.00
- Away recent form adjustment
- x0.99
- Sample size
- 41 home games, 43 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff25 Oct 2026, 14:00
- Prediction generated16 Oct 2026, 22:08
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:40