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Barry Town United
Haverfordwest County
Premier LeagueLeague
Barry Town UnitedVSUpcoming
Haverfordwest County24 Oct 2026, 17:15Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:45
AI recommendation
Under 2.5
64%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 16 Oct 2026, 18:31
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
BTU
1.15
HACO
0.99
Recent form adjustment
BTU0.96×
HACO0.98×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.15
- Away expected goals (model)
- 0.99
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.95/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.07/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.03/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.53/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.76 / 1.56 (80 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x0.96
- Away recent form adjustment
- x0.98
- Sample size
- 21 home games, 21 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy42%
Settled predictions1571
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff24 Oct 2026, 17:15
- Prediction generated16 Oct 2026, 18:31
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:45