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Connah's Quay
Llandudno
Premier LeagueLeague
Connah's QuayVSUpcoming
Llandudno24 Oct 2026, 12:30Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:45
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
79%
MEDIUM confidenceLimited databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 16 Oct 2026, 18:31
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
CON
2.15
LLA
0.81
Recent form adjustment
CON1.04×
LLA0.95×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 2.15
- Away expected goals (model)
- 0.81
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.58/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 2.28/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.38/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 0.95/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.76 / 1.56 (80 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x1.04
- Away recent form adjustment
- x0.95
- Sample size
- 22 home games, 5 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff24 Oct 2026, 12:30
- Prediction generated16 Oct 2026, 18:31
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:45