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Gnistan
Oulu
VeikkausliigaLeague
GnistanVSUpcoming
Oulu24 Oct 2026, 15:00Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:45
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
78%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 16 Oct 2026, 18:30
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
GNI
1.72
OUL
1.15
Recent form adjustment
GNI1.00×
OUL0.99×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.72
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.15
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.20/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.67/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.10/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.09/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.16 / 1.02 (39 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x1.00
- Away recent form adjustment
- x0.99
- Sample size
- 19 home games, 17 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff24 Oct 2026, 15:00
- Prediction generated16 Oct 2026, 18:30
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:45