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Hertha BSC
DSC Arminia Bielefeld
2. BundesligaLeague
Hertha BSCVSUpcoming
DSC Arminia Bielefeld24 Oct 2026, 12:00Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:45
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
75%
MEDIUM confidenceLimited databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 14 Oct 2026, 23:24
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
BCS
1.47
BIE
1.25
Recent form adjustment
BCS1.04×
BIE1.00×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.47
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.25
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.35/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.85/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.26/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.40/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.76 / 1.42 (45 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x1.04
- Away recent form adjustment
- x1.00
- Sample size
- 20 home games, 3 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff24 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Prediction generated14 Oct 2026, 23:24
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:45