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Gorica
Lokomotiva Zagreb
1. HNLLeague
GoricaVSUpcoming
Lokomotiva Zagreb24 Oct 2026, 14:00Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:45
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
75%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 14 Oct 2026, 23:24
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
GOR
1.36
LOK
1.31
Recent form adjustment
GOR0.99×
LOK0.97×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.36
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.31
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.20/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 2.12/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.27/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.17/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.85 / 1.10 (30 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x0.99
- Away recent form adjustment
- x0.97
- Sample size
- 21 home games, 23 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff24 Oct 2026, 14:00
- Prediction generated14 Oct 2026, 23:24
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:45