Back to Matches
Istra 1961
Hajduk Split
1. HNLLeague
Istra 1961VSUpcoming
Hajduk Split26 Oct 2026, 17:00Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:45
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
66%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 14 Oct 2026, 23:24
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
IST
1.12
HAJ
1.16
Recent form adjustment
IST1.01×
HAJ1.02×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.12
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.16
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.59/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.29/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.10/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.13/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.85 / 1.10 (30 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x1.01
- Away recent form adjustment
- x1.02
- Sample size
- 21 home games, 20 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff26 Oct 2026, 17:00
- Prediction generated14 Oct 2026, 23:24
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:45