Back to Matches
Dinamo Zagreb
Rijeka
1. HNLLeague
Dinamo ZagrebVSUpcoming
Rijeka27 Oct 2026, 17:00Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:45
AI recommendation
Under 2.5
66%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 14 Oct 2026, 19:42
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
GNK
1.36
RIJ
0.69
Recent form adjustment
GNK0.99×
RIJ1.01×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.36
- Away expected goals (model)
- 0.69
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 2.42/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.05/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 0.90/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 0.83/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.85 / 1.10 (30 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x0.99
- Away recent form adjustment
- x1.01
- Sample size
- 22 home games, 20 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy42%
Settled predictions1571
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff27 Oct 2026, 17:00
- Prediction generated14 Oct 2026, 19:42
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:45