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Chelmsford City
Tonbridge Angels
Enterprise National League SouthLeague
Chelmsford CityVSUpcoming
Tonbridge Angels24 Oct 2026, 15:00Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:44
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
65%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 14 Oct 2026, 00:12
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
CHE
1.26
TON
0.94
Recent form adjustment
CHE1.04×
TON1.01×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.26
- Away expected goals (model)
- 0.94
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.38/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.21/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.19/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.14/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.38 / 1.46 (107 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x1.04
- Away recent form adjustment
- x1.01
- Sample size
- 26 home games, 28 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff24 Oct 2026, 15:00
- Prediction generated14 Oct 2026, 00:12
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:44