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Dagenham & Redbridge
Chesham United
Enterprise National League SouthLeague
Dagenham & RedbridgeVSUpcoming
Chesham United24 Oct 2026, 15:00Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:44
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
77%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 14 Oct 2026, 00:12
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
DGR
1.73
CHE
1.08
Recent form adjustment
DGR1.00×
CHE0.94×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.73
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.08
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.67/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.44/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.29/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.30/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.38 / 1.46 (107 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x1.00
- Away recent form adjustment
- x0.94
- Sample size
- 29 home games, 27 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff24 Oct 2026, 15:00
- Prediction generated14 Oct 2026, 00:12
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:44