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Salisbury
Dover Athletic
Enterprise National League SouthLeague
SalisburyVSUpcoming
Dover Athletic24 Oct 2026, 15:00Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:44
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
73%
MEDIUM confidenceLimited databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 14 Oct 2026, 00:12
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
SAL
1.19
DVA
1.39
Recent form adjustment
SAL1.04×
DVA1.02×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.19
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.39
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.31/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.21/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.59/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.26/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.38 / 1.46 (107 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x1.04
- Away recent form adjustment
- x1.02
- Sample size
- 27 home games, 4 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff24 Oct 2026, 15:00
- Prediction generated14 Oct 2026, 00:12
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:44