Back to Matches
Hartlepool United
AFC Hornchurch
Enterprise National LeagueLeague
Hartlepool UnitedVSUpcoming
AFC Hornchurch24 Oct 2026, 15:00Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:44
AI recommendation
Under 2.5
65%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 12 Oct 2026, 20:31
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
HAR
1.11
HOR
1.01
Recent form adjustment
HAR0.98×
HOR0.99×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.11
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.01
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.20/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.60/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.29/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.09/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.70 / 1.38 (131 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x0.98
- Away recent form adjustment
- x0.99
- Sample size
- 28 home games, 29 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy42%
Settled predictions1571
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff24 Oct 2026, 15:00
- Prediction generated12 Oct 2026, 20:31
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:44