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Darlington
Spennymoor Town
Enterprise National League NorthLeague
DarlingtonVSUpcoming
Spennymoor Town24 Oct 2026, 15:00Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:44
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
75%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 12 Oct 2026, 20:31
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
DFC
1.33
SPE
1.33
Recent form adjustment
DFC0.98×
SPE0.98×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.33
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.33
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.47/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.56/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.35/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.14/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.67 / 1.14 (108 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x0.98
- Away recent form adjustment
- x0.98
- Sample size
- 28 home games, 28 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff24 Oct 2026, 15:00
- Prediction generated12 Oct 2026, 20:31
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:44