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Hednesford Town
Spalding United
Enterprise National League NorthLeague
Hednesford TownVSUpcoming
Spalding United24 Oct 2026, 15:00Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:44
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
76%
MEDIUM confidenceLimited databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 11 Oct 2026, 23:24
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
HED
1.60
SPA
1.12
Recent form adjustment
HED1.03×
SPA1.00×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.60
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.12
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.82/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.43/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.07/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.19/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.67 / 1.14 (108 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x1.03
- Away recent form adjustment
- x1.00
- Sample size
- 4 home games, 5 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff24 Oct 2026, 15:00
- Prediction generated11 Oct 2026, 23:24
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:44