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Merthyr Town
Morecambe
Enterprise National League NorthLeague
Merthyr TownVSUpcoming
Morecambe24 Oct 2026, 15:00Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:44
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
70%
MEDIUM confidenceLimited databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 11 Oct 2026, 19:34
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
MER
1.48
MRC
0.94
Recent form adjustment
MER1.00×
MRC1.02×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.48
- Away expected goals (model)
- 0.94
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.59/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.56/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 0.81/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.30/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.67 / 1.14 (108 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x1.00
- Away recent form adjustment
- x1.02
- Sample size
- 4 home games, 28 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff24 Oct 2026, 15:00
- Prediction generated11 Oct 2026, 19:34
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:44