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Eastleigh
Boston United
Enterprise National LeagueLeague
EastleighVSUpcoming
Boston United24 Oct 2026, 12:30Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:44
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
71%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 11 Oct 2026, 19:34
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
EST
1.46
BOU
1.02
Recent form adjustment
EST0.96×
BOU0.95×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.46
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.02
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.52/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.71/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.21/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.23/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.70 / 1.38 (131 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x0.96
- Away recent form adjustment
- x0.95
- Sample size
- 29 home games, 28 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff24 Oct 2026, 12:30
- Prediction generated11 Oct 2026, 19:34
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:44