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Harrogate Town
Sutton United
Enterprise National LeagueLeague
Harrogate TownVSUpcoming
Sutton United24 Oct 2026, 12:30Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:44
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
67%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 11 Oct 2026, 19:34
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
HAT
1.04
SUU
1.26
Recent form adjustment
HAT1.04×
SUU0.97×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.04
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.26
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.15/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.49/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.23/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.45/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.70 / 1.38 (131 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x1.04
- Away recent form adjustment
- x0.97
- Sample size
- 52 home games, 29 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff24 Oct 2026, 12:30
- Prediction generated11 Oct 2026, 19:34
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:44