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Sirius
AIK
AllsvenskanLeague
SiriusVSUpcoming
AIK24 Oct 2026, 14:00Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:43
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
76%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 11 Oct 2026, 19:34
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
SIR
1.45
AIK
1.32
Recent form adjustment
SIR1.02×
AIK0.97×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.45
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.32
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.95/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.17/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.31/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.36/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.61 / 1.32 (182 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x1.02
- Away recent form adjustment
- x0.97
- Sample size
- 35 home games, 36 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff24 Oct 2026, 14:00
- Prediction generated11 Oct 2026, 19:34
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:43