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Gil Vicente
Porto
Liga PortugalLeague
Gil VicenteVSUpcoming
Porto24 Oct 2026, 20:30Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:42
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
67%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 11 Oct 2026, 19:34
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
GVFC
0.90
FCP
1.42
Recent form adjustment
GVFC0.99×
FCP1.06×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 0.90
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.42
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.30/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 0.92/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.79/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.07/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.32 / 1.43 (67 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x0.99
- Away recent form adjustment
- x1.06
- Sample size
- 37 home games, 38 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff24 Oct 2026, 20:30
- Prediction generated11 Oct 2026, 19:34
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:42