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Lens
Paris
Ligue 1League
LensVSUpcoming
Paris24 Oct 2026, 19:45Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:42
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
68%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 11 Oct 2026, 19:34
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
LEN
1.36
PFC
1.00
Recent form adjustment
LEN1.00×
PFC1.01×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.36
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.00
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.65/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.37/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.12/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.07/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.67 / 1.22 (53 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x1.00
- Away recent form adjustment
- x1.01
- Sample size
- 37 home games, 20 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff24 Oct 2026, 19:45
- Prediction generated11 Oct 2026, 19:34
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:42