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Lazio
Parma
Serie ALeague
LazioVSUpcoming
Parma24 Oct 2026, 19:45Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:42
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
69%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 11 Oct 2026, 19:34
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
LAZ
1.59
PRM
0.81
Recent form adjustment
LAZ1.04×
PRM0.97×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.59
- Away expected goals (model)
- 0.81
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.60/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.42/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 0.84/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.32/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.48 / 1.33 (56 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x1.04
- Away recent form adjustment
- x0.97
- Sample size
- 41 home games, 41 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff24 Oct 2026, 19:45
- Prediction generated11 Oct 2026, 19:34
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:42