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Alverca
Arouca
Liga PortugalLeague
AlvercaVSUpcoming
Arouca24 Oct 2026, 18:00Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:42
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
73%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 11 Oct 2026, 19:34
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
ALV
1.51
FCA
1.08
Recent form adjustment
ALV1.01×
FCA1.00×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.51
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.08
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.14/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.74/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.14/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.35/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.32 / 1.43 (67 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x1.01
- Away recent form adjustment
- x1.00
- Sample size
- 21 home games, 38 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff24 Oct 2026, 18:00
- Prediction generated11 Oct 2026, 19:34
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:42