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Napoli
Roma
Serie ALeague
NapoliVSUpcoming
Roma24 Oct 2026, 17:00Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:42
AI recommendation
Under 2.5
66%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 11 Oct 2026, 14:14
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
NAP
1.23
ROM
0.84
Recent form adjustment
NAP1.03×
ROM1.03×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.23
- Away expected goals (model)
- 0.84
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.68/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.05/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.25/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 0.86/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.48 / 1.33 (53 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x1.03
- Away recent form adjustment
- x1.03
- Sample size
- 41 home games, 41 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy42%
Settled predictions1571
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff24 Oct 2026, 17:00
- Prediction generated11 Oct 2026, 14:14
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:42