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Toulouse
Troyes
Ligue 1League
ToulouseVSUpcoming
Troyes24 Oct 2026, 16:15Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:42
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
69%
MEDIUM confidenceLimited databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 11 Oct 2026, 14:14
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
TOU
1.35
TRO
1.06
Recent form adjustment
TOU1.00×
TRO0.94×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.35
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.06
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.34/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.64/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.02/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.36/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.62 / 1.23 (51 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x1.00
- Away recent form adjustment
- x0.94
- Sample size
- 37 home games, 3 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff24 Oct 2026, 16:15
- Prediction generated11 Oct 2026, 14:14
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:42