Back to Matches
Estrela Amadora
Casa Pia
Liga PortugalLeague
Estrela AmadoraVSUpcoming
Casa Pia24 Oct 2026, 15:30Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:42
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
67%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 11 Oct 2026, 14:14
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
CFEA
1.40
CPAC
0.92
Recent form adjustment
CFEA0.99×
CPAC0.97×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.40
- Away expected goals (model)
- 0.92
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.20/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.54/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 0.93/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.44/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.30 / 1.42 (66 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x0.99
- Away recent form adjustment
- x0.97
- Sample size
- 38 home games, 37 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff24 Oct 2026, 15:30
- Prediction generated11 Oct 2026, 14:14
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:42