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Cagliari
Bologna
Serie ALeague
CagliariVSUpcoming
Bologna24 Oct 2026, 14:00Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:42
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
70%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 11 Oct 2026, 14:14
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
CAG
1.14
BOL
1.30
Recent form adjustment
CAG1.02×
BOL0.99×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.14
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.30
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.21/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.36/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.35/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.30/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.48 / 1.33 (53 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x1.02
- Away recent form adjustment
- x0.99
- Sample size
- 40 home games, 40 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff24 Oct 2026, 14:00
- Prediction generated11 Oct 2026, 14:14
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:42